Bitcoin looks destined for more downwards price action as the bear market primes its claws for another swipe at cryptocurrencies.
While many believe the ongoing consolidation pattern is bullish, the lack of a bounce or forceful push through levels of resistance only reinforces the power of a bear market.
Some media outlets have been reporting that the cross on the weekly MACD is one of the most bullish signals for a year. If they were to look at the same indicator on the monthly chart however, they would realise crypto winter is far from over.
The last time the monthly MACD indicator crossed to the downside was in July of last year. At that time, Bitcoin’s price was around $8,400 and the vast majority of speculators believed it was time for a cycle back around into bull market territory. How wrong they were.
After being rejected from the $8,400 level, Bitcoin fell back to the yearly lows of the time between $6,150 and $6,800.
Again, speculators remained bizarrely bullish on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency space in general, despite all signs pointing to further downside movement.
The longer we stay at 6400 the more spot bitcoin you should be accumulating. Keep bids at yearly lows incase of one final dump, but this looks more and more like bottom with each day. See shitcoin accumulation cycles for reference.
— Flood [BitMEX] (@ThinkingUSD) October 26, 2018
Eventually, most of the bulls succumbed to the persistent pressure of the bears, with price smashing through yearly lows before falling 50% to $3,150.
The monthly MACD remains some way off a bullish cross, with both lines highlighted in the image above facing down.
In the previous bear market, the bearish MACD cross on the monthly chart preceded 16 months in the red before a cross to the upside.
This time around, we have seen just seven months since the cross, meaning that the bear market could drag out until as late as October, which will coincide with the SEC’s final decision on a Bitcoin ETF.
Next level of support: $1,800
In July 2017, the $1,800 level of support acted as a spring for Bitcoin’s forthcoming bull run. After touching $3,000, Bitcoin consolidated lower to exactly $1,800 before violently rallying up to $4,400 within one month.
As this level acted as such a key level of support, the indication is that there will still be buyers at this level, and thus when yearly support is broken, it should be a key stopping point.
Bitcoin, and the cryptocurrency market in general, needs to fall to this level to remind the bulls and speculators how scathing and difficult a bear market can be.
Capitulation is needed for the next market cycle. If you think Bitcoin will rally back to all-time highs following a low-volume consolidation period at a fairly insignificant level, you are probably viewing the chart through Bitcoin-tinted glasses.
If $1,800 eventually breaks, which is also a possibility, $1,150 is the next level to keep an eye on. This was the top of the 2013 bull market, and breaking out of this level in 2017 was incredibly significant.
What about altcoins?
What about them? Altcoins were the spawn of an evil ICO revolution that was built on hype and not innovation.
There are a few altcoins that will survive – the likes of Binance Coin, Ethereum, and even Litecoin should make it through the bear market – but the vast majority are completely useless.
In 2017, it wasn’t uncommon to hear the ‘blockchain’ buzzword used with almost every business concept. The ability to raise huge amounts of capital through an unregulated ICO allowed failed businessmen a get out of jail free card.
They promised investors that they would ‘revolutionise the world’ in 2018, pledging that they would transform the supply chain, database, IoT, and privacy industries.
The moment Crypto is as easy as PayPal
They’ll kick themselves they weren’t as early as you
It’s hard now, but money will be easy later
— Suppoman ? (@MichaelSuppo) February 22, 2019
But to this day, there is not even one platform that has gained mass adoption. This is why you should exercise caution around altcoins. Avoid people like Ian Balina, Michael Suppoman, and other social media shills who are just trying to gain a quick buck.
If you truly believe a project will succeed over the next decade, then great – put some money in and hope for the best. But be prepared to lose it all. Altcoin markets are extremely illiquid. Someone with $1 million could easily dump the price of many altcoins more than 90%, which means if any negative news comes out of regulators, you could lose everything – even if the company is viable.
Bitcoin is the king and it always will be
This space would have been nothing without Bitcoin. There will always be copycats and competitors, but Bitcoin has retained dominance of this digital asset class for the last decade, and it will moving forwards as well.
The SEC is currently considering a Bitcoin ETF, Nasdaq will list Bitcoin futures, while regulators in Asia are looking at Bitcoin as a potential option for derivatives markets.
This level of mainstream and institutional interest in Bitcoin could well spur another bull market. However, this time around we won’t have thousands of useless altcoins posing as a distraction.
Due to this, Bitcoin looks to be a solid long-term bet over the next decade, even though it may fall to as low as $1,150 in the short term.
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Disclaimer: The author of this article does not hold Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency.