“The trend is your friend. I believe that trading with the trend is one of the most important rules to follow,” he comments. “All too often traders obsessed with a biased view of the market have voiced their concerns that market is moving against their belief. They fixate on trying to pick a bottom or top (at any cost) in a severely trending market.”
He adds: “The reality is that picking turns correctly is nearly impossible to do, at least not consistently. The biggest sin is that repeated attempts at catching the turn leaves the trader missing the primary trending opportunity, which in a bull or bear market extreme is often some serious gains. Lastly, who could forget that the process of catching reversals in a trending market leaves the trader with a portfolio having suffered a ‘death by a thousand paper cuts’.”
The advantage of trading with the trend, Loukas believes, is that it is the direction traded by the big money – the whales, hedge and asset funds and the collective retail crowd. The momentum this causes allows price to continue moving in the direction of the trend until there is a good reason for it to end, such as a blow-off top in a bull market or a massive capitulation sell-off in a bear market.
“Just like a sailor needs to understand how the currents are flowing and in which direction the winds are blowing, so too must a trader or investor know what the market’s primary trend is before formulating his/her own trade ideas. All too often it is one’s personal bias that is the foundation for a trade, and that will inherently become a situation where the trader is fighting the tape or trend,” he concludes.