At the time of writing, the positive momentum in the cryptocurrency markets is still present. Bitcoin is well on the way to $20,000, and that means we can expect some altcoins to pump higher as well.
Bitcoin broke through the $9,000, $10,000, and $11,000 levels with ease last month, but has struggled to consistently remain above $12,000. After hovering close to $14,000, it broke down toward its 20-day EMA, touching the $9,600 level again.
We can’t forget that Bitcoin is an uncorrelated asset that is helping investors dodge economic and geopolitical risks in the form of trade wars, sluggish GDP growth, and what appears to be a new era of quantitative easing for central banks. For that reason, the coin has emerged as the top-performing asset of 2019, vastly outperforming stocks, bonds, commodities, and government-backed currencies. Plus, Bitcoin’s all-time ROI is now over 6,000%.
Another positive price indicator is the fact that gold-bugs and more traditional asset-based investors seem to be turning to Bitcoin as a safe haven from a possible economic meltdown coming at the end of the year or in 2020.
The correlation between bitcoin and gold is now the highest its been since 2016. pic.twitter.com/jgO6D2xalE
— Mati Greenspan (@MatiGreenspan) July 3, 2019
Let’s take a look at how the top cryptocurrencies have been performing.
Bitcoin is evolving as expected. Its overall value keeps increasing, and if you look at the volumes profile on the left of the graph above, you’ll notice there’s plenty of volume keeping BTC above the critical $11,000 level.
My prediction that Bitcoin could hit $20,000 by the end of the year could turn into an “end of the month” kind of deal. Assuming the positive trend continues and BTC price continues to rise, we should expect higher volumes coming in at key levels close to $20,000. Although many retail investors will be looking to sell some of their gains when Bitcoin hits all-time highs again, we can expect the price to keep going at least for a few weeks.
However, as the market becomes more liquid, we should expect fewer violent swings, so it could take longer for BTC to reach a new high.
Let’s not forget that I consider Bitcoin to be in a bull run when the 20-day EMA is above the 50-day EMA and the latter is above the 200-day EMA. As we’ve already accomplished that goal – not only in shorter time frames but also in daily and weekly ones as well – I personally think the bears have retreated and bulls are now firmly in charge.
Volume also seems to be increasing as well. Over the past two weeks, volume has gone from $17 billion to $23 billion, consolidating now around $20 billion.
Putting all this information together, we’re now clearly on the right path to reach $15,000 – or maybe even $20,000 – by the end of 2019.
Looking at the Ethereum chart above, we can clearly see a couple of interesting features. Firstly, the 20-day EMA has crossed the 50-day EMA, and the latter has crossed the 200-day EMA, which are both quite bullish signals.
Price is now also trading well above the 200-day EMA at over $300. Moreover, there could now be new support forming around $305, just above the 200-day EMA. This means the likelihood that price will come crashing down past this level is now lower, and will continue to diminish as long as ETH can hold this key level.
For the time being, I expect ETH to maintain its positive momentum, as I don’t see a reason for the positive trend to break. Volume-wise, ETH has been growing steadily and is now close to the $8 billion region.
Recent news from the Ethereum Foundation is putting positive pressure on price, as the coin is expected to have at least a testnet of the new Casper PoS models ready by the first half of 2020. With the upcoming Libra project – a currency envisioned by the Facebook team – there will be extra pressure on Ethereum to develop as both have similar goals in terms of smart contract functionality.
Ripple (XRP) was experiencing a pretty bullish period until the beginning of July, when price came crashing down below all its EMAs. At the time of writing, XRP is trading close to $0.40 after falling about 20% from its 2019 high north of $0.50.
During June, XRP managed to cross the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMAs as volumes went berserk. I expected support to be around $0.43 and then again at $0.38, where the 200-day EMA is sitting. The $0.43 level of support fell pretty easily, but it seems like $0.38 is holding for now.
I’m not entirely sure how price will move from here, but as long as Bitcoin maintains a positive slope, I expect Ripple to regain some of its latest losses.
LTC has been consolidating nicely around its 20-day EMA, which is quite an amazing achievement from a coin that was trading at around $30 in January 2019 and peaked at $147 in June. Fundamentals remain strong as LTC’s adoption keeps rising due to small fees and faster block times. Plus, the halvening event is just around the corner, and this usually has a tendency to push price upwards.
At the moment, price is trading above $115, and I expect it to continue to rise toward the $130 and $150 levels, where it should find the usual resistance. That is of course assuming Bitcoin maintains its positive trend.
If you were one of the smart ones who bought in during the early 2019 dip, congratulations! LTC has been one of the best performing coins in 2019.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is currently sitting above $407 – almost 20% lower than last month.
Bitcoin is still gaining market-share dominance over most coins, including BCH, and BCH price is currently trading at its lowest against BTC since late 2018. However, this doesn’t mean investors won’t take this opportunity to convert BTC into BCH. Bitcoin Cash has broken the major $350 level around its 20-day EMA, and the 50-day EMA has finally crossed the 200-day EMA. Moreover, the trend seems to be quite bullish, even though volumes have shrunk over the past week – like most altcoins.
If order books stay on the side of buyers, which will become increasingly difficult the more price goes up, we could see BCH climbing again to $500 and above in just a few weeks.
I expect Bitcoin to continue moving in an upwards trajectory with the usual 20-30% dips before we break all-time highs later this year. The major altcoins will follow Bitcoin’s lead as people begin to spread their gains and diversify their portfolios.
Will this happen? Or will the market cool off during the summer?
Leave your thoughts below.