Although there were lots of experts and crypto-enthusiasts who believed 2018 was the bottom for crypto, I personally think there is no evidence of a new bullish trend among the top coins. The long-term downtrends are clearly intact, and the past couple of months only qualify as a much-needed consolidation after the December 2018 lows.
A broader bottoming process might already be underway, but with the top three cryptocurrencies being very close to their bear market lows (from a long-term perspective), caution is needed.
At the time of writing, the market has taken a corrective turn, and in the last 24 hours, the total market cap has dropped about 4%, from above $130 billion to close to $125 billion.
The Bitcoin (BTC) one-hour chart shows how poorly the coin has been behaving compared to last week. After making an attempt to stay above its 50-day EMA and failing (as shown by the green line in the graph above), BTC is now crossing a dangerous zone, lagging behind the 20-day EMA which is sitting around $3,750.
Volumes are getting thinner, and it seems sellers are now in control.
Bitcoin is now trading near $3,700, and what I see for this week is a quite negative panorama. If Bitcoin remains below its 20-day EMA during the next 48 hours, my bet is that BTC price drops even further, about 5%-10% to the $3,300-$3,400 level.
If you’re looking to ride the wave down, beware that the drop could be considerable – my long-term bet is that BTC finds its ultimate capitulation price at a minimum of $2,500. I really don’t see Bitcoin going any lower than that, but I’ve also been wrong a bunch of times (so take whatever I say with a little grain of salt).
Much like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s price is currently dropping. ETH enjoyed an almost insignificant bull run last week prior to the Constantinople upgrade – which was successfully implemented, by the way. However, since March 1st, ETH has been going down from about $137 at its peak to $123 where it sits now. That represents a 9% drop.
Ethereum touched its 50-day EMA near $140 last week, which was working as a strong resistance level, but it’s been moving downwards ever since. At the time of writing, ETH has crossed its 20-day EMA, around $127, although I suspect there is strong support around the $115 level, as seen above.
Volume has also decreased about 5% since last week.
Ripple has also been accompanying the market trend and has been trading quite negatively over the past few days. It crossed its 20-day EMA at around $0.33 during the weekend, and is now trading about 1% lower.
XRP is enjoying strong support near this price level, meaning it could be hard for the price to drop further down to $0.28 as long as there are buyers holding the fort.
The coin has faced strong resistance around its 50-day EMA, near $0.35, which means a move higher in the upcoming weeks could send XRP to around this price level.
I would be careful trading during this week, as it seems we might continue to move further down. Traders should have some fiat ready in case BTC and other altcoins continue the bearish trend.
Happy trades, everyone!
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