The golden goose that Bitcoin has been chasing, an ETF, has once again been cancelled. This was unsurprising to many, though one could have expected more of a reaction from Bitcoin’s price movement rather than the baby dump that we saw. Bitcoin remained largely unscathed in the grand scheme of things. Does this mean that Bitcoin is maturing and turning from a 10-year-old baby into a moody teenager?
With the lack of volatility following this news, Bitcoin seems to be showing signs of hitting a bottom. This is certainly not definite – Bitcoin might still have further to fall. However, when looking historically at price movements, if it is to repeat itself, then we are looking close. Whilst history does have a tendency to repeat itself, there is no guarantee of it.
Many people are hanging on to the hope that the next Bitcoin halving will cause the next true bull run. The turning point for such usually begins about one year before the halving. If this is to be the case, then we should begin to start seeing a reversal in around four months.
For traders, this lack of volatility makes Bitcoin rather boring. One day in the future, the days of massive pumps and dumps may disappear. The fact that there hasn’t been a public freak-out over the ETF failure could suggest that Bitcoin and it’s audience are finally starting to mature. There is a chance, though, that people were not really expecting it to happen anyway, and therefore Bitcoin has already been priced in historically. The US government shutdown, amongst other factors, suggested that the ETF was never going to be on time in either case.
If and when Bitcoin does finally receive the approval of institutional investors and the SEC, the days of manipulation and craziness will begin to die. This is both good and bad depending on your viewpoint. Having seen Bitcoin’s volatility from both sides, a part of me will miss that crazy world. However, sooner or later, you have to let your babies grow up and forge their own path.