Bitcoin has experienced a major rally that has taken its price upwards close to 34% over the past two weeks.
Even with minor retracements, the market is moving positively with higher lows each time it falls, meaning we should expect BTC to continue its climb towards $13,000 – which in my opinion might come within the next couple of weeks.
While I personally am still bullish, others are predicting a sudden correction.
Just a few days ago, in my weekly Bitcoin price analysis piece, I brought up a hypothesis that all bull markets are expected to suffer large corrections of around 30-35% in the early stages.
This means we could still see Bitcoin touching its 100-day EMA or even its 200-day EMA despite the bull cycle (which can last a couple of years).
Now, another interesting question many people are asking is when will Bitcoin hit $20,000?
Something I usually don’t do – maybe only in the shadows – is making price predictions.
I have confidence in my long-term analysis, but I see myself more of an investor than a trader. I only care about really long-term price, not short-term price. I don’t think the current or near-term price of Bitcoin to represent how much its worth. In other words, I do not intend to use BTC as a currency on the foreseeable future.
Still, as the market has finally recovered (I believe), it’s now time to see where things could be heading up to the end of the year.
Will the summer be kind to Bitcoin? Will we see a massive retracement back to the 20-day EMA or will Bitcoin continue to moon to new yearly highs?
Looking at the chart above, it’s easy to guess what I think will happen. As long as that green line stays intact and price manages to stay above it, I expect Bitcoin to continue pushing higher and higher.
You can see from the chart that the 50-day EMA has crossed the 100-day EMA, and the 20-day EMA is already above both of them. This means we’re clearly in bullish territory.
Moreover, Fibonacci levels show BTC is already holding on to the 0.5 retracement level. The next one will be the key 0.618 level, around $13,500. If Bitcoin manages to surpass this level and get to the 0.786 retracement level, going higher than $16,000, I see little reason for a major retracement back to $8,000 or so.
Sure, we can expect BTC to hit key support levels along the way, but the trend line is on quite a positive slope. And as they say, you should never go against the trend – just ride it for as long as possible.
Bitcoin hitting $20,000?
— Pedro Febrero (@Febrocas) June 25, 2019
This tweet might come back to bite me. However, I’m true to my analysis. I believe Bitcoin will hit $20,000 before 2020, or during January 2020.
If you inspect the chart closely, you’ll see there’s a little tunnel connecting the lows of 2018 with the highs of 2017, which by chance of the mighty trading gods happens to cross exactly over early January 2020.
What I think this means is that there will be a huge push towards new highs during the New Year. More adoption, more institutional investors, and a further push for Lightning and lower transaction fees will help Bitcoin’s price maintain its positive slope.
Additionally, we shouldn’t forget Bitcoin is a living organism. Through the implementation of Segwit, Signature Aggregation, Taproot, Graftroot, and Scriptless Scripts (smart contracts on the Bitcoin network), we can expect the king of cryptocurrencies to become even more resilient and easy to use.
Of course, my analysis could be entirely wrong, but I intend to keep checking how my trend line is holding up. Again, if Bitcoin is able to keep pushing forward, my bet is on a $20,000 Bitcoin by 2020. Wouldn’t that be the cherry on top of the cake?